Analysis of the six-layer domestic regulatory architecture — production quotas, SOE duopoly, mandatory traceability, customs enforcement, VAT structure, and regulatory ambiguity — that constrains rare earth trade regardless of whether MOFCOM export controls are formally active. Heavy REE mining quotas frozen at 19,150 t for six years; 80.7% of historical thulium supply was illegally produced; customs enforcement cases up 248% in 2025.
State Council Order No. 785, Rare Earth Management Regulations Zhang et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2024 MOFCOM/GAC enforcement data, 2025lanthanides.io
Pricing intelligence for rare earths, rare metals & semiconductor materials
Recent News
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In Force Sm Gd Tb Dy Lu Sc Y Ho Tm Eu Er YbChina's invisible rare earth wall: why suspended controls don't mean available supply
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In ForceChina sanctions 15 Japanese defence entities
MOFCOM designates 15 Japanese companies as "unreliable entities," prohibiting export of controlled items (including all dual-use minerals). Retaliatory measure following Japan's Jan 2026 prohibition order targeting Chinese semiconductor firms.
MOFCOM Announcement No. 17 of 2026 Reuters, 'China retaliates with sanctions on Japanese defence firms,' 24 Feb 2026 -
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In Force Ga Ge Sb W Te Bi Mo In Sm Gd Tb Dy Lu Sc YJapan prohibited from receiving Chinese dual-use exports
China prohibits export of dual-use items to Japan, citing Japan's restrictions on semiconductor equipment to China. Covers gallium, germanium, antimony, rare earths, and all items on China's dual-use export control list. First country-wide prohibition order since the US ban in Dec 2024.
MOFCOM Announcement No. 1 of 2026 Japan METI semiconductor export controls, effective Jul 2023, expanded Dec 2025
Key Developments
7 REE export licences required (Sm, Gd, Tb, Dy, Lu, Sc, Y) In Force
Metals, alloys, oxides, compounds, and permanent magnets all covered. Licence review takes up to 45 working days with end-use certification
Sm Gd Tb Dy Lu Sc Y MOFCOM/GAC Ann. No. 18/2025W, Te, Bi, Mo, In added to dual-use export control list In Force
Licence required for all exports. Te and W most impacted — Te supply is inelastic (Cu byproduct), W is 82% Chinese production
W Te Bi Mo In MOFCOM/GAC Ann. No. 10/2025Ga/Ge/Sb US military end-use ban permanent In Force
Art. 1 of No. 46/2024 prohibits Ga, Ge, Sb exports for US military end-use. Never suspended. Blanket US ban (Art. 2) suspended until Nov 2026
Ga Ge Sb MOFCOM Ann. No. 46/2024, Art. 1Oct 2025 escalation suspended until 28 Nov 2026 Suspended
All six Oct 2025 announcements (Nos. 55–58, 61, 62) paused. Underlying licence requirements remain in force. If not renewed, controls revert to pre-Oct 2025 baseline
Ga Ge Sb W Te Bi Mo In Sm Gd Tb Dy Lu Sc Y MOFCOM Ann. Nos. 70, 72/2025 — expires 28 Nov 2026Japan prohibited from Chinese dual-use exports In Force
Country-wide prohibition on all controlled dual-use items to Japan, plus entity sanctions on 15 Japanese defence firms
Ga Ge Sb MOFCOM Ann. No. 1/2026 + No. 17/2026Sb controls drove 200%+ price surge In Force
Antimony price rose from ~$12,000/t to >$38,000/t within 6 months of Aug 2024 controls. China produces ~48% of global supply
Sb MOFCOM/GAC Ann. No. 33/2024